The most important event we have had in the week ending the first quarter of the year has undoubtedly been the implementation of Article 50 by which the United Kingdom and the European Union begin negotiations for the abandonment of the British country of the block European. The market had it discounted, but all the European currencies have suffered losses of different intensity.
Other important macro issues have left us, the publication of the GDP of the United States belonging to the fourth quarter of last year which reflects a strength of the country’s economy. We also had the same data from the United Kingdom that in this case what they manifest is a cooling of the English economy in the last quarter of 2016 and in the day of Friday we knew the forecast of the IPC for the month of March from the euro zone being left It is clear that neither with asset purchase programs is inflation capable of tracing the flight in Europe. In this way the ECB will find it very difficult to raise rates in the near future.
From a macro viewpoint next week we will have the Australian RBA meeting in the Asian session on Tuesday, no announcements of monetary policy changes are expected and everything seems that the Australian institution will leave the interest rate at 1.5% but As we must always be extremely careful in those schedules. We will also be familiar with the PMI data from the first world economies for the month of March and will be attentive to the ECB’s meeting of its non-monetary policy.
From a technical point of view and as always, the quarterly closing leaves us important readings in the quotations of the main currency pairs. In the EURUSD price for the start of the second quarter, of vital importance will remain the level of shelter of very long that passes through the 1.0609, everything will depend on him and provided he does not fall below the same will have capacity of recovery but placed Below it, will always be subject to bearish pressures. For the top part the first piece that has to recover is the interannual level that passes through the 1.0733 only if it does not avoid sharp falls.
The price of GBPUSD manages to finish the week in positive territory installed in an inter-annual level 1.2531 piece that fights in the last days and that will be vital for the next week. If you suffer rejections of this level what will do your quote will be immediately seek its annual opening price at 1.2347.
The crosses of the Yen present very different rhythms in the last weeks but always in favor of the Japanese currency. USDJPY closed the first quarter with a hefty loss of nearly -5% from its annual starting point. The key piece at the beginning of the week in this pair has a medium-term shelter that passes the 111.78, only if it manages to progress over it will push upwards while failing to accentuate the falls.